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WASHINGTON, Oct. 14 - The White House will soon begin
reviewing specific options to overhaul the federal tax system,
edging into one of the most volatile economic issues, administration
officials said today.
After
studying the issue for months and promising to make recommendations
by the end of the year, Treasury Secretary Paul H. O'Neill told an
audience in Iowa today that he intended to deliver options to the
White House in a few weeks. Aids said he meant some time after
Election Day.
Mr.
O'Neill has kept the details of his review under wraps, and it is
unclear whether his recommendations will be the starting point for a
debate in the White House or something closer to a final
administration position.
Economists
who have spoken with Mr. O'Neill and his staff said he seemed
determined to eliminate or radically revise the corporate income
tax, which he has long criticized as an inefficient, if not
economically harmful, way of raising revenue, and to simplify
personal income taxes.
All of
President Bush's top economic advisers have a longstanding interest
in rewriting the tax code, and Mr. Bush has expressed enthusiasm for
making that a priority. Changing the law would inevitably
create winners and losers, and any proposal would no doubt set off a
fierce lobbying battle and an intense partisan debate that would
demand a considerable investment of time and political capital on
the president's part.
People who
have consulted the administration on the topic said they had the
impression that the White House did not intend to make a specific
legislative proposal soon, especially if Mr. Bush pushes ahead next
year with his proposal to add personal investment accounts to Social
Security.
Instead,
the people who have met the officials said, the White House appears
more likely to spend the next year or two building support for
simplifying the tax law and eliminating provisions that they view as
inhibiting economic growth, perhaps making the issue a centerpiece
of Mr. Bush's re-election campaign.
Administration officials have said the outcome of the
Congressional elections on Nov. 5 will influence their decision on
how to proceed. Democrats have for the most part opposed
changing personal income taxes in ways that Republicans support,
regarding those proposals as efforts to shift more of the tax burden
from the wealthy and to middle- and lower-income
people.
Any
proposal to change how taxes are levied on corporations would also
have to contend with anger among members of both parties over this
year's disclosures of corporate malfeasance and tax
avoidance.
To the
degree that any plan involved reducing tax revenues, it would also
run into growing budget deficits.
Mr.
O'Neill has made clear that he views the tax law as a major block
for the economy. In Iowa today, he called it an abomination,
Reuters reported. The secretary has signaled for some time
that he intends to push ahead with an overhaul.
"It's
pretty clear that this treasury secretary truly has a passion for
tax reform, especially when it comes to abolition of the corporate
income tax structure," said Stephen Moore, president of the Club for
Growth, a political action committee that promotes supply-side
economic policies. Mr. Moore recently met Mr. O'Neill to
discuss tax reform.
Republicans have for years debated many approaches to
changing the law, and they often disagree strenuously among
themselves about the best approach.
Bruce
Bartlett, a senior fellow at the National Center for Policy
Analysis, a conservative research group, said Mr. O'Neill and Mr.
Bush's two other top economists, Lawrence B. Lindsey, chief White
House economic policy adviser, and R. Glenn Hubbard, chairman of the
Council of Economic Advisors, had each advocated detailed differing
approaches.
When Mr.
O'Neill was chief executive of Alcoa, he strongly supported a plan
proposed in the early 1990's by Senators Pete V. Domenici,
Republican of New Mexico, and Sam Nunn, a Georgia Democrat who
retired from Congress six years ago.
The plan
would have retained the basic shape of the progressive income tax
for individuals but would exempt from taxation all income dedicated
to savings and investment, effectively limiting taxation to income
used for consumption.
For
corporations, the income tax would be replaced by a system similar
to European-style value added taxes. Companies would be taxed
at a flat rate on their revenues minus what they pay to other
companies in the United States for goods, services and
equipment. In effect, companies would be able to write off
immediately the entire cost of their investments in new factories
and equipment, instead of writing off the costs gradually over many
years, as they do under current law.
Mr.
Lindsey was an early proponent of a single-rate flat tax for
individuals and businesses, Mr. Bartlett said. In the first
Bush administration, Mr. Hubbard helped develop a proposal to exempt
many low- and middle-income people from paying federal income taxes
by sharply raising the standard
deduction. |